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November 08, 2006

End of An Era

By Carl Goldstein

One more piece of stunning news, capping a day already full to bursting with mostly hopeful political upheaval: Webb has won Virginia, according to the AP, giving the Democrats control of both the Senate and the House.

The debacle in Iraq had already mostly brought an end to the Cowboy Era -- not with a bang, but a whimper. Now we're experiencing the final reverberations of Bush and the neoconservatives' imploding dream of a new imperial era. Formerly credulous voters set down their cups of koolaid, to Karl Rove's shock, no doubt, and placed their X's instead in the box belonging to the Democratic candidate.

The neocon's idea was that the United States would through force of will and raw power impose a Pax Americana of pro-Western, obediently democratic satrapies, first in the Middle East, then in wider dominions. Too bad Iraq didn't work out.

What's more, the administration's approach to Iran and North Korea -- rhetorical bellicosity aimed at disguising its actual passivity -- had already made it clear that the era of untrammelled unilateralism was dead and gone.

So that muscle-bound schtick has been replaced by -- what? What will the last two years of Bush bring us in the sphere of international relations?

I'll mostly leave aside the question of Iraq, except to observe that a fairly rapid drawndown of US forces will undoubtedly occur over the next 6-12 months. Despite continuing reluctance from Bush et al to grasp reality.

Fortunately or unfortunately, in the end they'll accomplish little, either good or ill. Democrats will have the ability to block those initiatives that require Congressional assent, like the India nuclear cooperation deal. But with those things that require active diplomacy and horse-trading, I think rearguard resistance from neocons in the foreign policy establishment will prevent real progress: on Iran, they'll block any deal containing security guarantees. On North Korea, same thing, basically. Both regimes will need guarantees that Washington has given up on externally-generated regime change.

No matter who is in charge in Washington, relations with China will grow more difficult. Exchange rates, the trade deficit, Beijing's more explicit assertion of a great power's perogatives, China-Japan-Korea tensions, rising opposition in China to neoliberal policies.... all will cause difficulties.

So we're probably lucky Bush is emasculated.

Posted by Carl at 10:25 PM | Comments (0)