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November 01, 2006

October Surprise

By Carl Goldstein

Now that November is upon us, with the midterm election just days away, we can finally answer the question: what would be the October Surprise that would swing the election one way or the other?

All last month, much anguished talk on the Democratic side revolved around what tricks Karl Rove might have up his sleeve -- some bit up political wizardry (or deviltry), perhaps, that would enable the Republicans to snatch victory from the jaws of.... well, you know. Or would Bush launch a military strike on Iran, claiming new intelligence on WMD's. It worked out just dandy the first time, so why not again?

Some Republicans suggested that the revelations of Mark Foley's electronic dalliance with underage boys -- which broke in early October -- was a devious Democratic plot, their attempt at a pre-election ploy. (Although even there, the best the Republicans could come up with -- as they reeled from revelations that the House Republican leadership had known for years about Foley's proclivities but covered it up for fear of political backlash -- was the unsubstantiated claim that Democratic operatives had got wind of the scandal some months earlier).

No, the real October Surprise was no surprise at all. It was the war. 105 American lives lost (far more Iraqis). Spreading bloodshed in Baghdad and beyond. The US military openly admitting that the strategy to pacify the capital city had failed.

The administration "cut and ran" from its "staying the course" rhetoric, as poll after poll showed what little support remained for the war draining away. Then came brave talk of firm deadlines and benchmarks for the Iraqi government, followed a day later by a public disavowal of said deadlines by Prime Minister Al-Maliki.

That was followed in turn a day later by an order for US troops to lift the blockade imposed on the Shiite militia stronghold of Sadr City days earlier to find a kidnapped US soldier and a death squad leader -- an order that US military forces made clear had been sprung on them by Maliki without advance consultation. Said order also apparently consigned the soldier, said to be an Iraqi-American, to his fate. (Is his ethnicity the explanation for how little attention and concern his fate has aroused in the US?)

So the October Surprise was not a random event upon which an election turned. Rather, it was purely a function of Bush's failed Iraq policy that -- as each day, week, and month passes -- shows a surprising ability to go from bad to worse to .... well, we shall see how bad it may get.

The only surprise lies in the Republicans disappointment that things didn't magically improve in October -- as Weekly Standard editor/leading neocon theorist/war booster Bill Kristol had hopefully predicted in early October. The daily diet of bad news out of Iraq made the White House game plan of focussing on Iraq as "the central front in the war on terror" as counterproductive as it was specious.

But make no mistake. The war and American's increasing dismay over the gap between what was promised and what has actually occurred will ensure a massive Democratic wave come Nov. 7. Best estimates on the House side indicate a Democratic gain from 20-35 (15 needed to regain control). The struggle for Senate hangs in the balance. With 6 seats needed, 4-5 looks easy, 6 or even 7 possible.

The wave is building. Let's ride it.

Posted by Carl at 10:17 PM | Comments (0)